This case study examines how systemic risk arises from degraded landscapes with reduced hydrological functions, manifesting as amplified droughts, desertification, and floods. Using the October 2024 Valencia flood catastrophe as its context, the report analyses the potential contribution of regenerating forms of agriculture to flood mitigation across 316,000 hectares of agricultural land, an exercise rarely undertaken at this scale.
Regenerating Systemic Risk: Valencia Case Study
Published 8th May 2026
On October 29, 2024, parts of the Valencian Community received more than 400mm of rainfall in under 24 hours. The resulting floods caused over 230 fatalities and recovery demands exceeding €30 billion. While the rainfall was exceptional, the severity of damage was compounded by a systematically degraded landscape whose capacity to regulate water had been substantially reduced through decades of conventional agricultural management, bare soils, heavy tillage, synthetic input dependency, and the absence of year-round vegetative cover.
Reactive measures do not promise long-term security for the increased probability of climate shocks. Flood management infrastructure does not address the underlying cause of these events, nor does it insure against the likelihood of another flood disaster.
The report draws on two complementary methodological approaches: a Curve Number hydrological analysis estimating runoff potential across Valencian soils and land uses, and a literature-based assessment of documented improvements in soil hydrological function under regenerative management.
Together, these provide an indicative picture of what a landscape-scale transition could mean, both for events like October 2024, and for the more frequent moderate-to-severe rainfall events that already occur regularly.
Under current conventional management, approximately 86% of a 200mm rainfall event becomes surface runoff. Introducing permanent cover crops between orchard rows reduces that figure to around 58%, corresponding to over 100 billion litres of additional water retained in soil across Valencia’s perennial crop systems.
Systems under regenerative agriculture for over 3-4 years could further reduce the total runoff to 46%. This equates to more than 776,000l per hectare or 212 billion litres total of extra water absorbed and retained within the soil over the entire rainfall event.
Reactive measures do not promise long-term security for the increased probability of climate shocks. Without addressing the underlying causes, infrastructure will prove in time wholly inadequate.
The findings are not presented as a complete solution to flood risk, but as evidence that land management is a material and underutilised variable in climate resilience planning. Regenerating forms of agriculture address structural vulnerabilities in the landscape that conventional flood infrastructure does not reach. A meaningful transition can be embedded within 4 to 6 years. In a timeframe comparable to major grey infrastructure projects, regenerating forms of agriculture can deliver improvements that compound over time rather than degrading.
The report is addressed to farmers, municipalities, regional and national governments, lenders, insurers, and reinsurers. Each carries a degree of exposure to the systemic risk created by degraded agricultural landscapes. The case study aims to support more informed decisions about where, how, and at what scale land-based interventions can form part of a broader climate resilience strategy.
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William Anderson
Research Coordinator
Simon Krämer
Executive Director